EBRD forecasts Georgian economic growth to fall 5.5% in 2020
“Loss of tourism receipts will be a significant blow to the Georgian economy,” says the report. Photo: Nino Alavidze/Agenda.ge.
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Georgian economic growth to fall 5.5 per cent in 2020 mainly as a result of a reduction in the country’s tourism sector due to coronavirus restrictions on travelling.
With tourism receipts normally amounting to nearly one-fifth of GDP, the negative impact will be widespread across many sectors. We expect the economy to shrink by 5.5 per cent in 2020 before recovering by 5.5 per cent in 2021,” says the report.
The report notes that the hospitality sector will be severely hit due to travel bans amid coronavirus fears.
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As for other countries in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan and Armenia, the EBRD has cut economic growth saying that the Armenian economy will shrink by 3.5 per cent while the Azerbaijani economy will contract 3 per cent in 2020. The EBRD forecasts an economic rebound of 5.5 per cent in Armenia and recovery of 3 per cent in Azerbaijan by 2021.
The EBRD says that Georgian economic growth amounted to 5.1 per cent in 2019. It notes that Georgia had a record number of international visitors last year (7.7 million, of which 5 million were tourists who stayed overnight).
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that economic growth in Georgia will reach 3 per cent in 2021, while it will be reduced by 4 per cent in 2020.
The World Bank projects Georgian economic growth to slow sharply this year, coming close to zero percent in 2020 due to the challenging external environment and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite a state of emergency, economic activity continues in Georgia except for Marneuli and Bolnisi municipalities in eastern Georgia where a strict quarantine regime has been imposed after a local, 62-year-old woman tested positive for COVID-19 came into contact with more than 80 locals.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank forecast Georgian economic growth to be three-four per cent by 2021, said Georgian Finance Minister Ivane Matchavariani.
Economic growth in Georgia is projected to reach 3 per cent in 2021, while it will be reduced by 4 per cent in 2020, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook. It says that the COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity.
The World Bank projects Georgian economic growth to slow sharply this year, coming close to zero percent in 2020 due to the challenging external environment and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also forecasts Georgian fiscal deficit (a shortfall in a government's income compared with its spending) to be around 5.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) will decline in 2020 in Georgia and is estimated to be -4.8 per cent, with projected recovery of growth at 4 per cent in 2021, reads the World Bank’s recent report Global Economic Prospects 2020.
The IMF has forecast a sharper decline in world economic growth than was expected just two months earlier, saying that the coronavirus pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast.
TBC Capital, Georgia’s brokerage, advisory and investment bank, predicts the Georgian economy will shrink 4.5 - 5.5 per cent this year in its report about the coronavirus’ impact on Georgia.
Georgia's COVID-19 crisis management is among factors creating a promising investment climate for the country in the wake of the pandemic, Catarina Bjorlin Hansen, Caucasus Regional Director for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said on Saturday.
Georgia is forecast to return to economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2021 thanks to expected recoveries in tourism, private consumption, investment, and net exports, following a contraction this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, the Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update.
The Georgian economy is projected to contract by six per cent in 2020, while in 2021 economic growth is forecast to reach four per cent, says the latest edition of the World Bank’s Economic Update for the region, released today.