TBC Capital, Georgia’s brokerage, advisory and investment bank, predicts the Georgian economy will shrink 4.5 - 5.5 per cent this year in its report about the coronavirus’ impact on Georgia.
However, the bank predicts 5-6 per cent economic growth by 2021.
The forecast for 2020 tourist inflows and FDIs has deteriorated, although expectations of foreign trade and remittances have improved, says TBC Capital.
The investment bank says that a sharp depreciation of the Georgian currency is unlikely and by the end of the year the lari will stabilize at 3.0.
As for inflation, the bank expects it to fall to 4.5 by the end of this year, while it expects the refinancing rate to fall to 7.75 per cent by that time.
TBC Capital, the investment arm of TBC Bank, is a wholly-owned investment banking subsidiary and licensed brokerage firm established in 1999.