World Bank estimates -4.8% decline of GDP for Georgia in 2020
The World Bank reports says that tourist arrivals have collapsed in Europe and Central Asia, but the impacts may be felt most strongly in countries such as Georgia, where tourism accounts for a sizable share of GDP. Photo: Nino Alavidze/Agenda.ge.
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The real gross domestic product (GDP) will decline in 2020 in Georgia and is estimated to be -4.8 per cent, with projected recovery of growth at 4 per cent in 2021, reads the World Bank’s recent report Global Economic Prospects 2020.
The report also cites Georgia’s announced fiscal measures that are equivalent to 3 per cent of GDP over the next few years, which include additional health spending, support for the tourism sector, accelerated and increased VAT refunds, a moratorium on tax payments for low-income earners, subsidised utility costs of the poor, and unemployment subsidies.
Overall, the Global Economic Prospects 2020 reads that growth in the South Caucasus is projected to shrink to -3.1 per cent this year as the subregion faces growth headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic and, subsequently, low commodity prices.
However, activity is projected to pick up to 3 per cent in 2021, as the impact of shocks related to the COVID-19 pandemic dissipates and tourism recovers alongside improving consumer and business confidence in Armenia and Georgia. Activity is expected to firm in Azerbaijan in 2021 as oil prices stabilise, but the overall recovery will be muted by lingering structural rigidities", reads the report.
The World Bank reports says that tourist arrivals have collapsed in Europe and Central Asia, but the impacts may be felt most strongly in countries such as Georgia, where tourism accounts for a sizable share of GDP.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Georgian economic growth to fall 5.5 per cent in 2020 mainly as a result of a reduction in the country’s tourism sector due to coronavirus restrictions on travelling.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank forecast Georgian economic growth to be three-four per cent by 2021, said Georgian Finance Minister Ivane Matchavariani.
3 possible scenarios from PMCG
PMCG Research has developed three possible scenarios for the development of the coronavirus crisis in Georgia, each of which correspond to different periods of time for which containment measures remain in place.
Economic growth in Georgia is projected to reach 3 per cent in 2021, while it will be reduced by 4 per cent in 2020, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook. It says that the COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity.
Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to 11.06 billion GEL in the first quarter of 2020 in Georgia, while GDP grew by 2.2 per cent year-over-year and the GDP deflator increased by 6.1 per cent in the reporting period, show the latest data from the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat).
TBC Capital, Georgia’s brokerage, advisory and investment bank, predicts the Georgian economy will shrink 4.5 - 5.5 per cent this year in its report about the coronavirus’ impact on Georgia.
Georgia is forecast to return to economic growth of 4.5 per cent in 2021 thanks to expected recoveries in tourism, private consumption, investment, and net exports, following a contraction this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report, the Asian Development Outlook 2020 Update.
The Georgian economy is projected to contract by six per cent in 2020, while in 2021 economic growth is forecast to reach four per cent, says the latest edition of the World Bank’s Economic Update for the region, released today.
The real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Georgia amounted to 5 per cent in 2019, says the final results of the National Statistics Office of Georgia, noting that GDP at current prices amounted to 49.25 billion GEL ($14.95 bln/€12.64 bln) which is a 10.4 per cent increase year-on-year.