What are the rapid estimates of economic growth in Georgia?

Next year's state budget will allocate 3 million GEL to healthcare, 85 million GEL to IDPs and 1 billion GEL to education. Photo by N. Alavidze/Agenda.ge.
Agenda.ge, 30 Dec 2015 - 13:24, Tbilisi,Georgia

In November 2015, the estimated real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate amounted to 5.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Georgia, says the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat).

Information released today by Geostat said the estimated real GDP growth reached three percent for first eleven months of 2015.

Meanwhile, the previous data from Geostat noted in the third quarter (Q3) of 2015, Georgia’s GDP showed a real growth of 2.5 percent y/y, while the GDP deflator increased by 6.3 percent.

Today, Georgia’s Economy Minister Dimitry Kumsishvili said 5.3 percent growth rate of GDP was "a very good indicator for November”.

I would like to name several fields which enjoyed better growth compared to last year. These are construction, metallurgical production, mining and quarrying, hotels and restaurants and financial intermediation,” Kumsishvili said.

More specifically, as the Minister announced Georgia’s construction sector enjoyed 30 percent growth, while metallurgical production grew by again 30 percent, mining and quarrying sector grew by 15 percent, hotels and restaurants – by 10 percent and financial intermediation – by nine percent.

Meanwhile, Geostat noted it produced monthly rapid estimations of real GDP growth using administrative data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover, fiscal and monetary statistics. The compilation of rapid estimates was an internationally adopted practice to obtain preliminary monthly growth of real GDP. For those sectors, where preliminary monthly data did not exist (e.g. agriculture, nonobserved economy etc.), the estimations were based on the data for previous periods.

Therefore, the actual quarterly real GDP growth might significantly differ from monthly rapid estimates.

Furthermore, the data on VAT taxpayers’ turnover for the previous months might be updated on a monthly basis, implying corresponding adjustments of real GDP growth estimates.