Lincoln Mitchell on Saakashvili and the breakup of the United National Movement

The continued breakup of the United National Movement (UNM) should not be a big surprise to anybody who has been paying attention to Georgian politics over the last four or five years, says blogger Lincoln Mitchell.

In an opinion piece published today, the Chief of Party for the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia from 2002-2004, Lincoln Mitchell, discussed possible reasons for the UNM split and what impact this might have on Georgia’s future.

"Political parties that lose four consecutive elections, in this case two for parliament, one presidential and one local election, rarely hold together”, he says.

Mitchell believes that former Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava’s comment that Saakashvili "does not radiate leadership anymore”, was one of the nicer things he said about his party’s founder and longtime leader.

"Saakashvili’s response was also telling. He noted that Ugulava spent more time attacking Saakashvili then Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party that Saakashvili has long demonized as the real leader of Georgia and a Russian stooge. Saakashvili also added that period of "losers governance” within the UNM was over because Bokeria, Bakradze and Ugulava had left”, says the political analyst.

Mitchell also writes that Saakashvili has been making an effort to flatter the American President-elect with the intent of making himself a player again.

"If that happens, Georgia can hope that Saakashvili uses that relationship to help Trump arrive at a different position on Putin, but Saakashvili would also use that relationship to frame Trump’s understanding of Georgian politics”, Mitchell says.

"That understanding would place Saakashvili as the shining beacon of hope for Georgia. That understanding, if it became the foundation for American policy on Georgia, would be a disaster for Georgia, and a problem for the US as well”.

You can read his full analysis here: www.lincolnmitchell.com