European Council on Foreign Relations: “In the shadow of Ukraine: seven years on from the Russian-Georgian war

On this day seven years ago a short but almighty war began between Russia and Georgia.

To mark the occasion, Gustav Gressel has written a detailed commentary describing those fateful days; from the situation leading up to the war, the clash itself and the response by international players.

The piece, published on August 6 by the European Council on Foreign Relations website, also draws a parallel to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and discusses if and how anything can be done differently to prevent future clashes.

The war had its roots in long-standing Russia instrumentalisation of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a bargaining chip to influence Georgia's domestic policy. Above all, it was used as a tool to prevent Georgia from further strengthening ties with the West.

"Yet Russia could not offer the Georgians any viable path for social, political, and economic modernisation. Frustration mounted leading to the 2003 Rose Revolution and the ousting of the regime of Eduard Shevardnadze. Saakashvili, who rose to power after the revolution, tried to achieve two key objectives simultaneously, reunification of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and the westernization of Georgia.”

The piece goes on to describe the actions of both parties that lead to the Russia-Georgia war on August 7, 2008 then analyses the impact of future clashes between Russia and Georgia or Ukraine.

Ukraine is, compared to Georgia, much more capable militarily. Further Russian military advances would not remove Ukraine from the political map of Europe – at least not quickly. But that's not necessarily true for Georgia. With Russian troops having increased their capabilities and operational tempo significantly after 2008, a renewed Russian-Georgian war would probably be fatal for Georgia,” states Gressel.

"In both countries, the West has no clear concept of how to deal with the respective, long-term EU and NATO membership aspirations of these countries. While after Georgia the West became cautious not to be caught up in regional military struggles, both conflicts show that refraining from meaningful support will be interpreted as an opportunity to escalate in Moscow.

"Short of formal EU membership, the association agreements provide some framework for developing closer relations between the EU, Georgia and Ukraine respectively. But in the dimension of hard security, European foreign policy has a void that Russia knows to exploit skilfully.”

Read the full article here: www.ecfr.eu