ADB forecasts 4.7% economic growth in Georgia in 2019
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The growth of Georgia’s economy is projected to reach 4.7 percent in 2019, following a dip to 4.5 percent in 2018, on strong investment and exports, says the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
On the supply side, industry is forecast to expand by 5.4 percent in 2018 and 5.8 percent in 2019, with strong growth in construction and a rebound in utilities. Services are projected to grow by 4.5 percent in 2018 and 4.8 percent in 2019 on further gains in tourism and finance. With continued help from government programs, agriculture is expected to expand by 2.1 percent in 2018 and 3.7 percent in 2019, says the ADB.
Pension and capital market reforms planned for the second half of 2018 should support growth by boosting savings and investment. Further support should come from anticipated reforms to upgrade infrastructure, improve arrangements for public–private partnership, promote trade integration, and strengthen public procurement”, says the report.
A downside risk to the forecast is weaker exports if Georgia’s trading partners underperform. By contrast, a stronger external environment could accelerate growth beyond current projections. Inflation is projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2018 as the impact of one-time increases in excise taxes wanes”, the report says.
A further slowing toward 3 percent is projected for 2019 as fiscal discipline, supported by Georgia’s current arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, promises to stabilise prices.
Growth above expectations could boost inflation, however, as could energy or food price increases above current forecasts or currency depreciation if US monetary policy tightens faster than expected”, says the report.
Since 2007, $2.7 billion has been invested in Georgia. Now our investment package is $1.5 billion and our goal is to take Georgia to the level of middle income countries”, said Yesim Elhan Kayalar, Permanent Representative of the Asian Development Bank in Georgia
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